Articles
Your House Might Be Underwater for Years  
Bloomberg BusinessWeek August 16, 2010
    An "Op-Ed" article discussing effect of expectations on home buyer demand.  The title was their choice.

A Review of Regulatory Barriers to Employer Ability to Recruit/Retain Employees
U.S. Dept of Housing and Urban Development, July 2008
with Liza Bowles, David Rodda, Eric Belsky, and Daniel McCue
    Review of literature and data regarding effects of regulations on housing supply, labor supply, and business location.  
    Although this was a collaborative effort, I worked mostly on chapters 2 and 3, which are summarized in a May 2007
    presentation given at HUD.

Housing Preferences of Immigrants and Minorities
AREUEA Conference July 2004 (with Gopal Ahluwalia)
    Statistical analysis of survey of home buyer preferences

Inflation in Materials Housing Economics March 2004
    Rising cost of building materials, due to strong demand and inadequate production capacity

Multifamily Housing Housing Economics February 2004
    Downward pressures (including vacancies) on market-rate rentals offset by condo boom

Builders' Computer Use Housing Economics December 2003
    Survey finds limited use in production and purchasing

Construction Workers: Settling In Housing Economics October 2003
    Employment in construction more stable than commonly recognized

Headship Rates and Housing Demand Housing Economics June 2003
    Young adults living with their parents have constrained demand

New Home Cost Components Housing Economics March 2003
Alternative share measures for land, labor, materials, and profit

Energy and Regional Economics Housing Economics February 2003
    Production and consumption of energy by state

Seasonality in the Housing Market Housing Economics November 2002
    There are still seasonal patterns, but production during the year has been spreading more equally

Second Homes: A Growing Market? Housing Economics July 2002
    It's hard to measure how many new homes are bought as second homes, but it doesn't seem to have grown much in
    the 1990s.

House Price Bubble Babble Housing Economics April 2002
    Discussion of price measures and the persistence of high price-to-income ratios in high cost areas.  The title was
    unfortunate, given the irrational exuberance that mainly occurred after this article was written.

New Home Structures and Land Housing Economics January 2002
    Presents Census data showing regional measures of lot cost as a share of home price.  The land share has
    remained relatively stable over time, as the houses grew larger and lots grew smaller.

Housing and GDP Housing Economics October 2001
    How housing fits into the investment and consumption data.  The biggest piece consists of homeowners collecting
    (imputed) rent from themselves.

Townhouses--The Other Single Family Housing Economics September 2001
    Single family housing, as recorded by the Census Bureau, includes detached and attached structures.  This article
    describes the differences in characteristics and occupants.

Examining Supply-Side Constraints to Low-Income Homeownership
Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies August 2001 (with Michael Collins and David Crowe)
    Collins did all the work on this.  I'm somewhat embarrassed that my name was on it--not because it isn't good but
    because I don't deserve the credit.

Life and Death in the Construction Industry Housing Economics August 2001
    This is about business establishments, not the people who work in the industry.  Builders go in and out of business
    faster than firms in other industries.

The Neglected Condominium Housing Economics November 2000
    Demographic and other factors were favorable for condos, but few were built in the 1990s.  I hope this article wasn't
    responsible for the overbuilding that subsequently occurred.  In home building, and many other activities, what's
    good in moderation becomes bad in excess.

Demographic Roller Coaster Housing Economics July 2000
    Fluctuations in the rate of household formation

Home Building in Central Cities Housing Economics February 1999
    There was much more activity in central cities than was recognized, but the meaning of central city is a lot different in
    the west than in the east.

Trade in Building Materials Housing Economics December 1998
    Heavy materials are not exported or imported as much as other (non-construction) products, but trade is important,
    especially for lumber, cement, and other key products

Construction Labor Shortage Housing Economics November 1998
    Unfavorable demographics, lagging wage gains, contributed to growing problem finding skilled workers

Second Home Construction Housing Economics July 1998
    Movement of baby boomers into middle age didn't bring as much demand as anticipated

Inside Rising Home Ownership Housing Economics January 1998
    Homeownership rate slumped in the 1980s, but climbed rapidly, beginning in 1995

Lumber Price Decline Housing Economics June 1998
    Asian slump, use of substitute materials, increased productivity brought prices down despite strong housing market

Development of Federal Homeownership "Policy"  Housing Policy Debate 9:2, 1998
    Historical roots of tax, credit market, and subsidy policies affecting homeownership, which often were established for
    purposes other than promotion of ownership.

Remodeling Facts Presentation for NAHB Research Center April 1997
    Collection of statistics measuring remodeling activity, with copies of articles about remodeling

1996 Households Housing Economics February 1997
    Household formations were apparently weak, although deficiencies in the data were partly responsible

Replacement Demand for Housing Housing Economics December 1996
    Measuring net removals

Myths and Reality About Seniors Housing Housing Economics August 1996
    Most don't move, especially into their children's homes, but those that do often buy new homes

Staying Put Housing Economics May 1996 (with Andrew Kochera)
    Mobility rates declined, with the expected stay for homebuyers rising from 10 to 15 years, based on AHS data

Housing, the CPI, and the Deficit Housing Economics November 1995
    How the large share of the CPI attributed to housing cost is calculated

The Shortfall in Households Housing Economics April 1995
    Doubling up by young adults reduced demand

Hedging Lumber With Futures and Options Housing Economics July 1994
    How the futures market works

Procrastination Housing Economics June 1994
    Americans are forming households, marrying (if at all), having children, buying homes, and retiring later.

What's Driving Lumber Prices? Housing Economics January 1994
    More contributions to price volatility

Home Building Jobs Housing Economics December 1993
    Distinguishing between residential and nonresidential construction, new construction vs remodeling, and payroll vs
    self-employed

Lumber Crisis Housing Economics February 1993
    Attack of the Spotted Owl and other predators.

Home Owner Mobility and Mortgage Prepayment
Housing Economics September 1992 (with David D'Alessandris)
    Analysis of AHS data shows that many prepayments don't involve moves or refinancing.

New and Existing Sales Housing Economics June 1992
    Explanation of the data, lags, and correlations

The Housing Outlook
in University of Michigan, The Economic Outlook for 1992
Economics Department, Ann Arbor, November 1991

Housing Demolitions: Analysis of Permit Data
AREUEA Midyear Conference, May 1991
    Demolitions Occur Where There is Growth, Not Decline

Children and Housing Housing Economics April 1991
    Families with children demand different types of homes.

What Happened to Household Formations? Housing Economics February 1991
    Discussion of net change in households, contributions of population, headship, economic conditions

Second Homes Housing Economics July 1990
    Measures of the number and the owners.  How important to demand?

Tax Expenditures Housing Economics April 1990
    Estimates of housing-related tax preferences

Immigration: Demographic Wild Card Housing Economics March 1990
    Immigration policies, numbers, and impact on housing demand

Housing Supply and Demand
Howard University Conference: "One Third of a Nation: An African-American Perspective"
November 9, 1989

Do Thrifts Matter? Housing Economics July 1989
    Once the dominant source of housing finance, thrifts were replaced by other sources of mortgage money

Regulatory Costs and Affordable Housing Housing Economics May 1989
    Review of the findings from the HUD-sponsored Joint Venture for Affordable Housing show that land regulations,
    rather than construction regs, are the principal factor affecting affordability

Income Distribution and the Housing Industry Housing Economics December 1988
    After narrowing from WW II to the early 1970s, the income distribution was becoming more unequal, meaning more
    demand for luxury housing and more households struggling to pay for housing.

Earnings of Wives: A Key to Housing Demand Housing Economics December 1988
    Dual-income married couples, with rising shares having both employed full time, become the key market for new
    homes.

Marriage, Divorce, and Housing Housing Economics April 1988
    Divorce was a key factor in household formations and housing demand in the 1970s, but divorce rate began to fall.  
    You have to marry, however, in order to divorce

Seasonal Adjustment and Housing Data Housing Economics January 1988
    How the X11 seasonal adjustment procedure works
.
Homelessness: A Housing Problem?
in Richard D. Bingham, Roy E. Green, Sammis B. White, ed., The Homeless in Contemporary Society
(Sage Publications 1987)

The Demand for Office Space Economic News Notes (Housing Economics) February 1987
    Office-using employment and space per worker

Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Growth Differentials
Paper for AREUEA annual meeting New Orleans, December 1986
    In the 1970s, growth in non-metro areas exceeded metro growth. Industrial structure, not quest for simpler lifestyle,
    was the reason for unusual pattern.  

Lags and Leakages in Housing Data Housing Economics September 1986
    How Census data on permits, starts, completions, and sales are related

The Impact of Tax Reform on Housing Demand and residential Construction Activity
in James R. Follain, ed., Tax Reform and Real Estate
Urban Institute 1986

The Future of Bank Financial Services for Housing
American Bankers Association, 1982


    michael@michaelcarliner.com
                  240-899-0310
Michael Carliner
Housing Economist