http://michaelcarliner.com/blog Musings on Housing and the Economy Mon, 14 Jul 2008 16:48:33 +0000 http://backend.userland.com/rss092 en The ambiguous identification of government-sponsored entities (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with the government and the private sector has taken on new twists. Loose lips, general uncertainty, and sheer panic have contributed to a crash in their stock prices and raised questions about their previously-sterling credit standing. The Non-guarantee Fannie ... http://michaelcarliner.com/blog/2008/07/12/fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac-androgynous-financiers/ Reports during the past couple of weeks by CNN (6/16), the Wall Street Journal (6/17), and the New York Times (6/25), indicated that the housing market slump and the increase in gasoline prices have had disproportionate adverse impacts on outer suburbs, and have also suggested that the long-term suburbanization trend ... http://michaelcarliner.com/blog/2008/06/30/suburbs-passe/ Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association and elsewhere have confirmed the large, continuing rise in the share of loans that are delinquent or in the process of foreclosure.  MBA data for the first quarter of 2008 showed 5.64 percent of all mortgage loans were delinquent (not seasonally adjusted), and ... http://michaelcarliner.com/blog/2008/06/15/foreclosure-tsunami/ As the housing and mortgage markets have foundered, the FHA (Federal Housing Administration) has suddenly become the focus of a variety of efforts to stabilize the market. It has already filled much of the breach left by vanishing financing sources, but now it is being eyed for more dubious ... http://michaelcarliner.com/blog/2008/05/21/fha-to-the-rescue/ The headline from today's report on new residential construction was the 12 percent drop in housing starts from February to March. The month-to-month change was magnified by a swing in the volatile multifamily data, but the basic message of gloom was not misleading. Single family starts, at an ... http://michaelcarliner.com/blog/2008/04/16/residential-construction/ Some of the biggest shocks from the housing correction have been in states where extraordinary growth had seemed perpetual. Nevada, Arizona, and Florida led the nation in housing starts, relative to population, over the past 20 years, and their economies became heavily dependent on home building and other industries ... http://michaelcarliner.com/blog/2008/03/17/states-addicted-to-growth/ I've been struggling to figure out what to say about the mortgage situation. There is so much happening that is difficult to know where to start. These are a few random notes about subprime and other loans headed for trouble, and the belated efforts by government officials to ... http://michaelcarliner.com/blog/2008/02/20/the-mortgage-muddle/ Payroll employment fell by 17 thousand in January, the first month-to-month decline since 2003. The downtick was led by a decline of 27 thousand in construction employment, from 7,475,000 to 7,448,000. Residential construction employment, for builders and special trades (subcontractors), fell by 28 ... http://michaelcarliner.com/blog/2008/02/01/let-the-recession-begin/ The subprime mortgage meltdown, drop in confidence, credit crunch, etc., are only part of the problem with housing. The various elements come together when supply is compared to demand. The indicators of that relationship include the supply of unsold new homes, the number of existing homes for sale, ... http://michaelcarliner.com/blog/2008/01/29/no-light-ahead-yet/ As if the current severe housing market correction were not enough, a new paper by Dowell Myers and SungHo Ryu posits that the short-term problems will be overshadowed by a "generational housing bubble" as baby boomers continue to age. This report has been given prominent attention in media such ... http://michaelcarliner.com/blog/2008/01/27/generational-housing-bubble/